Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
