Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.