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At first, Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering statements of "significant repercussions" during the summer if Vladimir Putin persisted blocking peace discussions, he eventually enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by both nations' officials without Ukraine's or EU participation, he has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would effectively favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in peril. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the plan in reality weaken that same sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his business experience, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, as if handing Putin a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the leader. However, Russia's military campaign is not simply about controlling a charred region of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to destroy it so it no longer functions as an enticing model for the Russian people of the democratic government that Putin's growing autocracy withholds them.

Border Concessions

Although keeping in status the presently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel the nation to surrender the entire Donetsk region. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a ten years of warfare, this concession would render Ukraine's defensive positions severely undermined.

This region is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that represent a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, giving Putin a clear path to Kyiv should he eventually choose to renew the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would make renewed hostilities simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's initiative sets no such restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as radicals, Trump's plan states: "Any extremist belief system and practices must be condemned and banned." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing elections in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative has Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has breached equivalent treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should we have confidence in Putin this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on western security guarantees. Although the initiative threatens a "strong unified military response" should Russia resume its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics include fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not only prevent the nation accession to NATO but also preclude member states from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Russia from restoring his weakened forces, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Concern

Another side agreement according to sources would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "major, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not